Episode 7 · Oct 9, 2026
Where Is the Pokemon Money Moving? Real Data by Era
Since September 2025, Black and White booster boxes are up 184% and Sword and Shield boxes are down 7%. Three signals came first. Here is where they point next.
This is the written version of episode 7 of Holo Returns. Every number below comes from sold data and listing counts captured on October 7, 2026, with a few prices re-checked on October 9. Pokemon prices move fast, so read each figure as that week’s snapshot.
Key takeaways
- Since September 2025, the median Black and White booster box is up 184%, while the median Sword and Shield box is down 7%.
- In three of four Pokemon eras, the top PSA 10 slabs doubled two to four months before that era’s booster boxes did.
- TCGplayer lists zero Black and White booster boxes, while the big Sword and Shield sets have 40 to 56 each.
- A Black and White PSA 10 costs about 70 times the raw card; a Sword and Shield PSA 10 costs about 2.5 times.
- Sun and Moon is the open gap: its top PSA 10s are up 163% since September 2025, its booster boxes only 13%.
Where did the Pokemon money go?
The money did not leave Pokemon. It moved between eras. Measured as the median booster box for each era against its own January 2024 price, XY boxes had roughly quadrupled by September 2025 (an index of 397), while Sun and Moon (314) and Sword and Shield (304) had roughly tripled.
Then the eras split. Over the last year, sealed Pokemon money went backward in time, to the oldest boxes with the least supply.
| Era | Median booster box since September 2025 |
|---|---|
| Black and White | +184% |
| Wizards of the Coast | +65% |
| XY | +25% |
| Sun and Moon | +13% |
| Sword and Shield | -7% |
The money did not leave. It went looking for scarcity, and three signals showed up before each move.
Signal 1: the slabs move first
For each era, I built the same index for its top PSA 10 cards, lined it up against that era’s booster boxes, and marked the first month each one reached double its January 2024 level.
| Era | Slabs first at 2x | Boxes first at 2x | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| XY | April 2025 | June 2025 | 2 months |
| Black and White | July 2025 | November 2025 | 4 months |
| Sword and Shield | January 2025 | May 2025 | 4 months |
| Sun and Moon | May 2025 | May 2025 | Same month |
Four eras is a small sample, so treat this as a pattern, not a law. The size of the moves since September 2025 tells the same story: the slabs ran harder than the boxes in every era.
| Era | Top PSA 10s since September 2025 | Booster boxes since September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Black and White | +384% | +184% |
| XY | +136% | +25% |
| Sun and Moon | +163% | +13% |
| Sword and Shield | +3% | -7% |
Single cards show it too. The two Breakthrough Mewtwo EX secret rares (163/162 and 164/162) in PSA 10 had May medians of $4,151 and $4,060, then sold for $10,150 on August 24 and $10,250 on September 15.
Signal 2: supply dries up
TCGplayer shows how many copies of each booster box are listed for sale right now. By era:
| Era | Booster boxes listed per set |
|---|---|
| Black and White | 0 (Plasma Storm, Plasma Freeze, Plasma Blast and Legendary Treasures are all out of stock) |
| XY | 0 to 6 |
| Sun and Moon | 1 to 15 |
| Sword and Shield | 40 to 56 for the big sets, plus full sealed cases |
PriceCharting also rates how often each box sells. Across 61 booster boxes, the 12-month change lined up with how rarely they trade:
| How often the box sells | Median 12-month change |
|---|---|
| Monthly or less | +160% |
| Monthly to weekly | +23% |
| 1 to 4 times a week | +10% |
| Daily | +12% |
That rating is a snapshot, not a trend, so it does not prove that thin always means up. It does say the big moves came where there was almost nothing left to buy.
Signal 3: the PSA 10 premium
For the same cards, I divided the PSA 10 price by the raw, ungraded price: how much extra the market pays for a perfect copy.
| Era | PSA 10 price vs raw, median card |
|---|---|
| Black and White | 70x |
| XY | 46x |
| Sun and Moon | 9.7x |
| Sword and Shield | 2.5x |
A huge premium means perfect copies are hard to find; a small one means there are plenty. You can see it inside XY too. Over the last year, the same 39 XY cards rose 30% raw and 121% in PSA 10.
That is why the XY slab run should not be copied straight onto Sword and Shield. Sword and Shield tens are not scarce, so if its turn comes, it is more likely to show up in sealed than in slabs.
Where is the Pokemon money going next?
Put the three signals together, era by era.
- Black and White already ran. Its slabs are up 384% and its boxes 184% since September 2025, there are almost none for sale, and the boxes have not set a new high since August.
- XY is in the follow-through. The slabs are up 136%. The boxes lagged, but they are up 18% since July and sitting at a new high. One warning: many XY box prices you hear are asking prices. An Ancient Origins box is listed from $8,233.99 on TCGplayer, and its last two sales were $5,245.22 and $6,279.92 on September 30. The move is real when sales print near the asks.
- Sun and Moon is the open gap. Its top PSA 10s are up 163% since September 2025, its boxes 13% and slightly down since July, and its supply is thinner than Sword and Shield’s. By these signals, it is next in line.
- Sword and Shield shows no signal. Slabs up 3%, boxes down 7%, the deepest supply of any era here, and tens that are not scarce. It may get its turn, but nothing in the data says it is next.
One risk to keep in mind. In August, the Ancient Origins M Rayquaza EX (98/98) in PSA 10 sold at a median of $13,450. From September 1 through October 7, the median was $10,311, down 23%, even with a $17,657 sale on October 7. Buying the leg that already ran is how people get stuck holding it.
Verdict: where the signals point
Dated October 7, 2026. Not financial advice.
| Where | Call | The numbers |
|---|---|---|
| XY PSA 10s | Wait | That leg already ran; M Rayquaza EX, the slab that led it, is 23% under its August median |
| Sun and Moon sealed | Watch | Burning Shadows box $1,190.43 (top PSA 10s +340%, box +7%), Celestial Storm $2,376.00 (+166%, box -5%), Cosmic Eclipse $4,529.46 (+102%, box -1%) |
| Sun and Moon PSA 10s behind their era’s +163% | Watch | Reshiram & Zekrom GX 222/236 $2,369.11 (+18%), Umbreon GX 154/149 $961.14 (+42%), Magikarp & Wailord GX 161/181 $4,066.00 (+49%), near the last sale |
| XY sealed | Only near the last sale | Fates Collide $2,752.97 (top PSA 10s +208%, box +18%), never at the ask |
| Sword and Shield | No rush | Its PSA 10 index fell 8% from April to October 2026; wait for it to turn up |
In all three Sun and Moon boxes, the top slabs moved and the box barely did.
Since recording
Re-checked October 9, 2026:
- Reshiram & Zekrom GX PSA 10: $2,250
- Umbreon GX PSA 10: $1,000
- Magikarp & Wailord GX PSA 10: $4,066 (last sale $4,100 on October 8)
- M Rayquaza EX PSA 10: sold at $13,100 and $12,500 on October 8; the median since September 1 is $10,350, still about 23% under August
- Booster box prices: unchanged
What I’m watching next
Two things: whether the next Ancient Origins box sells anywhere near its asking price, and whether Sword and Shield slabs finally turn up.
How this was measured
- Era indexes: the median booster box in each era, measured against its own January 2024 price (100 means no change), from PriceCharting monthly prices. The slab indexes use the same method on each era’s top PSA 10 cards (39 cards for XY).
- “Since September 2025” compares September 2025 with the October 7, 2026 snapshot.
- Listings: TCGplayer booster box listings on October 7, 2026. Asking prices are labeled as asks and never used as a price.
- Sales pace: PriceCharting’s sales-frequency rating, a snapshot rather than a trend.
More on the rules behind every number: how prices are cleaned.
FAQ
Is Sun and Moon sealed a good investment right now?
By the three signals in this report, Sun and Moon sealed is next in line: its top PSA 10s are up 163% since September 2025 while its booster boxes are up 13%, and its supply is thinner than Sword and Shield’s. That is a dated read of the data from October 7, 2026, not financial advice.
Why did older Pokemon booster boxes go up the most?
Over the last year, sealed money moved to the oldest boxes with the least supply: Black and White boxes rose 184% and Wizards of the Coast boxes 65%. TCGplayer lists zero Black and White boxes, and boxes that sell monthly or less rose a median 160%, against 12% for boxes that sell daily.
Do PSA 10 slabs move before booster boxes?
In three of four eras, yes. XY slabs doubled two months before XY boxes, and Black and White and Sword and Shield slabs four months before their boxes. Sun and Moon slabs and boxes doubled in the same month. Four eras is a small sample.
Is Sword and Shield sealed next?
Nothing in the data says so yet. Sword and Shield boxes are down 7% since September 2025, the big sets have 40 to 56 boxes listed each, and the era’s PSA 10 index fell 8% from April to October 2026.
Should I buy XY PSA 10s now?
The data says wait. XY’s top PSA 10s are already up 136% since September 2025, and the slab that led the run, the Ancient Origins M Rayquaza EX, sold about 23% under its August median from September 1 through October 7.
Sources
- PriceCharting: monthly prices by era, sold logs, sales-pace ratings · captured Oct 7, 2026
- TCGplayer: booster boxes listed per set, Ancient Origins asking prices · captured Oct 7, 2026
- PriceCharting: re-check of the Sun and Moon PSA 10s and M Rayquaza EX · captured Oct 9, 2026
- Holo Returns episode 7: Pokemon Money Is Moving. Where to Look Next (Real Data) · captured Oct 9, 2026